Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 21–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2153 SFO 10:13 → RDM 11:57 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 1809 SFO 21:18 → RDM 22:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2153 United Flight history →	SFO 10:13	RDM 11:57	21%	4%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
UA 5425 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:05	RDM 18:56	23%	9%	1.1%	78%
UA 5880 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:02	RDM 14:51	26%	11%	0.9%	78%
AS 3227 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:00	RDM 18:38	27%	12%	1.1%	24%
UA 1809 United Flight history →	SFO 21:18	RDM 22:59	29%	6%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON