Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1205 SFO 08:10 → RDU 16:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 477 SFO 21:10 → RDU 05:25 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1205 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	RDU 16:25	11%	4%	0.6%	94%
UA 1965 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	RDU 08:21	16%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 477 United Flight history →	SFO 21:10	RDU 05:25	19%	6%	0.6%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	7h 16m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31DL 2783	6h 56m	90%	82%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:50 → MDW 12:00WN 1779	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 13:20 → RDU 16:15WN 4462	7h 25m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON