Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5394 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 5394 SFO 08:13 → RNO 09:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 5707 SFO 12:12 → RNO 13:28 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5394 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:13	RNO 09:27	12%	5%	0.9%	88%
UA 5983 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 21:16	RNO 22:38	20%	9%	0.9%	61%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	SFO 22:45	RNO 23:58	25%	8%	0.6%	64%
UA 1613 United Flight history →	SFO 16:45	RNO 17:59	26%	10%	0.6%	49%
UA 5707 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:12	RNO 13:28	29%	14%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON