Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1057 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–51%.

Safest bet that day WN 1057 SFO 07:00 → SAN 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest WN 4681 SFO 18:10 → SAN 19:45 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 9% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1057 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 07:00	SAN 08:35	8%	3%	1.0%	75%
UA 1980 United Flight history →	SFO 06:38	SAN 08:22	10%	2%	0.6%	97%
AS 3455 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 06:00	SAN 07:44	13%	5%	1.6%	69%
UA 444 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	SAN 09:59	18%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 4239 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 08:55	SAN 10:35	19%	10%	1.0%	70%
AS 1557 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:55	SAN 09:35	19%	4%	1.2%	73%
UA 2142 United Flight history →	SFO 22:42	SAN 00:31	26%	12%	0.6%	73%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	SAN 20:53	27%	11%	0.6%	65%
UA 1147 United Flight history →	SFO 14:20	SAN 16:07	28%	11%	0.6%	45%
UA 2177 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	SAN 11:51	30%	11%	0.6%	68%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	SFO 16:43	SAN 18:35	30%	11%	0.6%	59%
UA 1257 United Flight history →	SFO 12:21	SAN 14:08	30%	12%	0.6%	67%
UA 1863 United Flight history →	SFO 21:00	SAN 22:49	31%	12%	0.6%	79%
AS 3337 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:24	SAN 18:09	35%	18%	1.6%	59%
AS 3479 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 11:52	SAN 13:39	39%	19%	1.3%	58%
AS 3482 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:21	SAN 15:05	41%	21%	1.3%	59%
WN 3496 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 11:00	SAN 12:40	42%	18%	1.0%	8%
WN 3525 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 12:30	SAN 14:10	42%	18%	0.9%	45%
WN 3653 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 19:35	SAN 21:15	43%	19%	0.9%	23%
F9 4306 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 22:23	SAN 00:04	46%	24%	4.6%	51%
WN 3652 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 16:00	SAN 17:40	47%	19%	1.0%	10%
WN 4242 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 14:00	SAN 15:40	48%	17%	0.9%	0%
WN 4681 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 18:10	SAN 19:45	51%	22%	0.9%	9%
AS 2058 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 18:42	SAN 20:21	68%	24%	4.8%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON