tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 6036 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 18:37 SAT 00:29 20% 9% 0.6% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 9h 14m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 1h 54m Chicago ORD 09:10 → SAT 12:12UA 490 9h 22m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 05m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 8h 01m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 5h 43m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 5h 46m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145 3h 30m Phoenix PHX 11:00 → SAT 15:10WN 2986 7h 40m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:15 → DEN 09:59UA 1758 3h 45m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 8h 40m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 11m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 16:39 → LAX 18:13DL 2267 46m Los Angeles LAX 18:59 → SAT 23:54DL 2686 5h 15m 65% 50%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:10 → DAL 20:50WN 1859 55m Dallas DAL 21:45 → SAT 22:55WN 2231 5h 45m 65% 42%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 12:00 → LAX 13:30WN 4235 1h 05m Los Angeles LAX 14:35 → SAT 19:25WN 3511 5h 25m 59% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON