Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2721 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2721 SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 630 SFO 12:27 → SEA 14:35 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 21% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2721 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:55	SEA 08:05	5%	2%	1.0%	95%
UA 1708 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	SEA 09:22	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 620 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:03	SEA 08:13	13%	2%	0.8%	90%
AS 68 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:03	SEA 09:13	19%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:30	SEA 15:47	24%	8%	0.8%	77%
AS 1327 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:00	SEA 11:15	29%	7%	0.8%	69%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SFO 20:45	SEA 23:10	31%	9%	0.6%	66%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	SFO 16:38	SEA 19:03	32%	10%	0.6%	76%
DL 2870 Delta Flight history →	SFO 10:35	SEA 12:48	32%	9%	0.8%	42%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	SFO 18:28	SEA 20:53	33%	9%	0.6%	69%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	SFO 12:10	SEA 14:30	33%	9%	0.6%	72%
UA 5579 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:59	SEA 01:29	33%	11%	0.8%	72%
UA 1265 United Flight history →	SFO 14:00	SEA 16:20	34%	10%	0.6%	59%
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	SEA 23:17	35%	12%	0.8%	67%
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:29	SEA 19:44	36%	12%	0.7%	68%
AS 1340 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:50	SEA 18:00	37%	11%	0.8%	69%
UA 2192 United Flight history →	SFO 10:15	SEA 12:34	37%	9%	0.6%	47%
AS 758 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 17:38	SEA 19:47	42%	11%	0.8%	73%worse than usual
AS 790 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 14:20	SEA 16:31	42%	9%	0.8%	73%worse than usual
AS 591 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 20:28	SEA 22:41	42%	12%	0.9%	72%worse than usual
AS 656 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:18	SEA 12:27	50%	10%	0.8%	57%
AS 630 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 12:27	SEA 14:35	50%	10%	0.8%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON