Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5220 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 5220 SFO 08:17 → SMF 09:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1302 SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5220 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:17	SMF 09:25	15%	6%	0.9%	83%
UA 5796 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:08	SMF 18:16	27%	12%	0.9%	78%
UA 1302 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	SMF 23:59	28%	10%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON