Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3244 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–32%.

Safest bet that day AS 3244 SFO 06:35 → SNA 08:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 560 SFO 10:37 → SNA 12:16 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3244 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 06:35	SNA 08:15	8%	2%	1.1%	93%
UA 5236 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 07:15	SNA 09:02	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 589 United Flight history →	SFO 19:10	SNA 20:55	13%	5%	0.6%	89%
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:28	SNA 11:11	18%	7%	1.0%	79%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	SNA 12:08	20%	7%	0.6%	82%
AS 3464 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:52	SNA 22:30	21%	4%	1.2%	75%
UA 571 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	SNA 13:45	21%	8%	0.6%	70%
UA 5650 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:30	SNA 18:22	25%	10%	1.0%	72%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:08	SNA 19:47	26%	8%	1.2%	71%
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	SNA 15:31	26%	9%	0.9%	80%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:48	SNA 17:26	27%	6%	1.0%	85%worse than usual
F9 3582 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 17:26	SNA 19:08	32%	12%	0.9%	65%
AS 3237 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:30	SNA 14:09	37%	10%	0.9%	12%
AS 560 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:37	SNA 12:16	38%	9%	0.7%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON