tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2090 United Flight history → SFO 12:12 STL 18:17 27% 7% 0.6% 75%
WN 1417 Southwest Flight history → SFO 10:50 STL 16:55 36% 9% 0.5% 23%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → STL 10:28DL 3188 7h 53m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 43m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 3h 24m Chicago ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355 9h 21m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 08:40 → STL 13:40WN 1467 6h 10m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 1h 26m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 7h 22m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 10h 15m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 3h 42m Chicago ORD 16:13 → STL 17:46AA 4537 · flown by Republic 9h 42m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 +1DL 2666 5h 34m 57% 47%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 11:00 → SAN 12:40WN 3496 50m San Diego SAN 13:30 → STL 19:05WN 3552 6h 05m 57% 37%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237 55m Phoenix PHX 16:40 → STL 21:35WN 3353 6h 00m 55% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON