tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5986 at 18:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5986 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 18:55 SUN 21:51 19% 7% 0.7% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → SUN 12:25DL 3973 · flown by SkyWest 5h 35m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:55 → LAX 15:35UA 2610 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → SUN 22:01UA 6043 · flown by SkyWest 7h 06m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 23m Los Angeles LAX 10:02 → SUN 13:16UA 5980 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 3h 09m Denver DEN 11:44 → SUN 13:47UA 5554 · flown by SkyWest 7h 47m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 95% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656 3h 58m Seattle SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon 7h 43m 99% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 1h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m 74% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON