tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:24, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2851 United Flight history → SFO 14:37 TPA 22:58 24% 7% 9.9% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 3h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077 9h 54m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → TPA 14:13DL 2696 10h 38m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 43m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 8h 32m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 7h 14m 96% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:50 → SEA 18:00AS 1340 3h 18m Seattle SEA 21:18 → TPA 05:48 +1AS 639 10h 58m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:48 → PHL 09:20AA 2695 3h 35m Philadelphia PHL 12:55 → TPA 15:37AA 2838 11h 49m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 3h 27m Denver DEN 17:50 → TPA 23:29UA 1961 9h 49m 99% 68%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 55m Houston IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501 8h 12m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361 50m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 7h 58m 64% 43%
AmericanDetails → SFO 12:18 → PHX 14:29AA 2548 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 15:29 → TPA 22:35AA 1837 7h 17m 67% 40%
JetBlueDetails → SFO 11:26 → BOS 20:16B6 1534 47m Boston BOS 21:03 → TPA 00:22 +1B6 591 9h 56m 64% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON