tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5688 at 20:57 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5688 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 20:57 TUS 23:26 20% 9% 0.6% 77%
UA 6023 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 12:23 TUS 14:47 32% 11% 0.6% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 07:40 → TUS 09:00WN 519 4h 00m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 2h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 32m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → TUS 11:09AA 6369 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:15 → PHX 10:22AA 2414 3h 13m Phoenix PHX 13:35 → TUS 14:28AA 6373 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 14:30 → LAX 15:56DL 2725 3h 25m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → SFO 10:09 → LAX 11:49AA 6428 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Los Angeles LAX 15:39 → TUS 17:12AA 6372 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:20 → LAX 10:53DL 1421 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 15:52 → PHX 18:04AA 1321 1h 03m Phoenix PHX 19:07 → TUS 20:01AA 6370 · flown by SkyWest 4h 09m 68% 49%
AmericanDetails → SFO 18:55 → PHX 21:00AA 2544 55m Phoenix PHX 21:55 → TUS 22:42AA 2635 3h 47m 67% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:15 → LAX 15:45WN 278 1h 05m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → TUS 18:20WN 951 4h 05m 65% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON