Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5895 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 5895 SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5404 SGF 17:01 → DEN 18:25 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5895 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 05:50	DEN 06:57	6%	5%	0.5%	89%
UA 5898 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 09:03	DEN 10:20	9%	6%	0.5%	86%
UA 5903 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 11:25	DEN 12:40	11%	6%	0.5%	83%
UA 5541 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 13:33	DEN 14:48	12%	7%	0.5%	79%
UA 5404 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 17:01	DEN 18:25	23%	7%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON