Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3842 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3842 SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3803 SGF 18:34 → DFW 20:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3842 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 05:01	DFW 06:38	4%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 3424 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:00	DFW 08:40	8%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 3801 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 09:30	DFW 11:11	8%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 3794 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 12:46	DFW 14:25	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 3624 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 08:14	DFW 09:54	11%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SGF 10:43	DFW 12:14	13%	6%	1.4%	73%
AA 3795 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 15:37	DFW 17:16	17%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 3797 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 19:40	DFW 21:20	20%	4%	0.8%	62%
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 18:34	DFW 20:15	22%	5%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON