Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, G4 85 at 13:21, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 85 Allegiant Flight history →	SGF 13:21	LAS 14:27	16%	9%	1.0%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5895 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Denver	DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316	5h 17m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	SGF 06:00 → ATL 08:54DL 1680	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	8h 02m	100%	85%
United Details →	SGF 06:15 → IAH 08:17UA 4852 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 38m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 58m	98%	84%
American Details →	SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38AA 3842 · flown by Envoy	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → LAS 09:16AA 1584	6h 15m	99%	81%
United Details →	SGF 09:03 → DEN 10:20UA 5898 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	5h 21m	92%	76%
United Details →	SGF 11:25 → DEN 12:40UA 5903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Denver	DEN 16:00 → LAS 17:03UA 716	7h 38m	100%	76%
American Details →	SGF 06:53 → CLT 10:15AA 4083 · flown by Envoy	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 11:26 → LAS 13:06AA 2038	8h 13m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SGF 11:32 → ATL 14:27DL 4707 · flown by Endeavor	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	8h 20m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SGF 15:30 → ATL 18:26DL 4854 · flown by Endeavor	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → LAS 21:01DL 955	7h 31m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON