Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3800 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3800 SGF 10:35 → ORD 12:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 4792 SGF 18:34 → ORD 20:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3800 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 10:35	ORD 12:23	13%	5%	1.1%	89%
AA 4129 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:15	ORD 09:05	16%	6%	1.0%	83%
AA 3802 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 14:11	ORD 16:04	24%	9%	1.1%	75%
AA 3626 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 19:53	ORD 21:45	25%	7%	1.3%	62%
UA 4792 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 18:34	ORD 20:29	33%	13%	1.3%	59%
UA 4421 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 07:45	ORD 09:40	19%	9%	4.9%	81%
UA 4525 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 11:19	ORD 13:12	33%	18%	3.3%	67%
UA 4466 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:07	ORD 17:02	35%	17%	5.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON