Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3504 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3504 SHV 06:00 → ATL 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 4111 SHV 17:16 → ATL 20:13 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3504 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:00	ATL 09:00	7%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 4117 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 07:46	ATL 10:38	14%	5%	0.8%	86%
DL 3507 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 12:59	ATL 15:55	19%	7%	0.8%	75%
DL 4111 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:16	ATL 20:13	19%	6%	1.0%	61%
DL 5302 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SHV 10:28	ATL 13:19	10%	3%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON