Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6450 SHV 07:00 → CLT 10:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 5201 SHV 12:04 → CLT 15:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6450 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 07:00	CLT 10:25	16%	5%	0.8%	77%
OH 5119 PSA	SHV 18:23	CLT 21:50	21%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 5201 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SHV 12:04	CLT 15:30	22%	8%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON