Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6511 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 6511 SHV 06:00 → DFW 07:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 6337 SHV 17:13 → DFW 18:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6511 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:00	DFW 07:23	8%	4%	1.0%	86%
AA 4130 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SHV 14:36	DFW 15:58	14%	4%	1.3%	79%
AA 5111 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SHV 10:04	DFW 11:19	14%	6%	1.2%	78%
AA 5136 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SHV 11:15	DFW 12:30	15%	7%	1.3%	81%
AA 4128 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SHV 20:16	DFW 21:39	18%	5%	2.3%	62%
AA 6340 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 08:20	DFW 09:45	19%	7%	1.0%	70%
AA 6337 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:13	DFW 18:34	25%	11%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON