Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5994 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 5994 SHV 05:20 → IAH 06:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5959 SHV 17:56 → IAH 19:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5994 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 05:20	IAH 06:25	7%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 5837 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 15:35	IAH 16:50	15%	8%	0.8%	70%
UA 5347 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 09:30	IAH 10:45	16%	6%	0.8%	70%
UA 5259 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 07:20	IAH 08:35	16%	6%	0.8%	75%
UA 5959 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:56	IAH 19:10	21%	8%	1.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON