Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 73 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 73 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 06:00	JNU 06:43	13%	4%	3.2%	90%
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 19:30	JNU 20:12	25%	6%	3.3%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Juneau on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SIT 14:08 → SEA 17:29AS 652	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 21:23 → JNU 22:55AS 71	8h 47m	97%	67%
Alaska Details →	SIT 07:00 → SEA 10:24AS 651	3h 19m Seattle	SEA 13:43 → JNU 15:17AS 435	8h 17m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SIT 07:00 → SEA 10:24AS 651	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 11:24 → JNU 12:56AS 209	5h 56m	67%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON