Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 62 at 11:39, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 62 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 11:39	KTN 12:33	18%	5%	2.0%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ketchikan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SIT 06:00 → JNU 06:43AS 73	52m Juneau	JNU 07:35 → KTN 08:35AS 60	2h 35m	83%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SIT 14:08 → SEA 17:29AS 652	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 18:38 → KTN 19:43AS 69	5h 35m	72%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON