Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 651 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 07:00	SEA 10:24	33%	5%	1.0%	85%worse than usual
AS 652 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 14:08	SEA 17:29	34%	8%	1.6%	80%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h ahead of Sitka). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SIT 11:39 → KTN 12:33AS 62	3h 27m Ketchikan	KTN 16:00 → SEA 19:00AS 214	6h 21m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON