Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 654 SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 809 SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 654 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:35	ATL 14:15	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 2136 Delta Flight history →	SJC 22:00	ATL 05:37	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 809 Delta Flight history →	SJC 12:40	ATL 20:24	10%	4%	0.7%	91%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 39m	96%	83%
Southwest Details →	SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35WN 2280	50m Las Vegas	LAS 08:25 → ATL 15:25WN 4482	6h 25m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 37m	92%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON