tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 09:10, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3657 Southwest Flight history → SJC 08:50 BNA 15:05 12% 3% 0.5% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:15 → LGB 07:35WN 4933 2h 55m Long Beach LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165 8h 15m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:35 → ONT 07:55WN 4879 1h 50m Ontario ONT 09:45 → BNA 15:35WN 3142 7h 00m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 1h 18m Chicago ORD 14:12 → BNA 15:57UA 1928 7h 27m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 7h 16m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 9h 15m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 8h 35m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 3h 49m Los Angeles LAX 12:15 → BNA 18:24DL 449 9h 24m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586 1h 27m Denver DEN 13:50 → BNA 17:34UA 1109 6h 49m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 14:16 → SEA 16:27AS 521 1h 04m Seattle SEA 17:31 → BNA 23:59AS 416 7h 43m 67% 46%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 10:05 → SAN 11:30WN 1133 1h 00m San Diego SAN 12:30 → BNA 18:30WN 4147 6h 25m 70% 45%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965 50m Dallas DAL 17:55 → BNA 19:45WN 277 6h 05m 66% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON