Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3413 at 19:48 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3413 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 19:48	BOI 22:33	12%	6%	0.6%	87%
WN 943 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 16:35	BOI 19:05	31%	7%	0.5%	26%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35WN 2280	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → BOI 11:25WN 2192	4h 25m	100%	91%
Alaska Details →	SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon	6h 52m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → BOI 12:14DL 1442	5h 14m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Seattle	SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest	6h 51m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654	3h 18m Los Angeles	LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46DL 3773 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	100%	85%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:05AA 1694	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 10:10 → BOI 13:27AA 4948 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58DL 4148 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	84%
Alaska Details →	SJC 14:16 → SEA 16:27AS 521	3h 32m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon	7h 08m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 08:20 → SEA 10:31AS 1426	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 11:36 → BOI 14:07AS 2106 · flown by Horizon	4h 47m	65%	45%
Southwest Details →	SJC 19:35 → LAS 21:10WN 5126	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 22:30 → BOI 01:15 +1WN 185	4h 40m	72%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON