Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4843 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4843 SJC 06:30 → BUR 07:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1839 SJC 20:50 → BUR 21:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4843 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:30	BUR 07:40	3%	1%	1.2%	98%
WN 2079 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:55	BUR 11:05	9%	3%	1.2%	85%
WN 3661 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 12:10	BUR 13:20	14%	5%	1.1%	94%
WN 3663 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:05	BUR 18:15	25%	9%	1.0%	84%
WN 4931 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:05	BUR 15:15	26%	7%	1.0%	67%
WN 1839 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:50	BUR 21:55	38%	13%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON