Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 621 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:40	BWI 05:45	20%	5%	0.5%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	8h 55m	98%	85%
United Details →	SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → BWI 17:36UA 2124	8h 06m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	SJC 17:05 → DEN 20:30WN 4246	3h 20m Denver	DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501	9h 10m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:27 → BWI 06:00 +1DL 2079	9h 59m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	SJC 16:40 → ONT 18:00WN 3691	3h 40m Ontario	ONT 21:40 → BWI 05:30 +1WN 3143	9h 50m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	8h 59m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928	8h 48m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	SJC 06:25 → PHX 08:20WN 3186	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 09:30 → BWI 16:55WN 1039	7h 30m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SJC 19:35 → LAS 21:10WN 5126	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 1069	7h 10m	66%	46%
Southwest Details →	SJC 19:00 → SAN 20:25WN 4513	1h 15m San Diego	SAN 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3486	7h 35m	63%	44%
Southwest Details →	SJC 11:50 → SAN 13:15WN 3698	55m San Diego	SAN 14:10 → BWI 22:10WN 4148	7h 20m	63%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON