Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	7h 46m	100%	82%
United Details →	SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	7h 42m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	8h 49m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 35m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	SJC 10:05 → MDW 16:10WN 4357	4h 00m Chicago	MDW 20:10 → DCA 23:05WN 1172	10h 00m	100%	76%
American Details →	SJC 19:23 → PHX 21:18AA 2576	2h 34m Phoenix	PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 +1AA 1542	8h 51m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	8h 12m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	7h 55m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 10:03 → SAN 11:43AS 3059 · flown by SkyWest	59m San Diego	SAN 12:42 → DCA 21:00AS 14	7h 57m	72%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON