Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 586 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 586 SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3668 SJC 14:35 → DEN 18:00 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 586 United Flight history →	SJC 08:45	DEN 12:23	7%	3%	0.5%	97%
UA 1035 United Flight history →	SJC 18:37	DEN 22:15	12%	6%	0.5%	80%
WN 3666 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:25	DEN 13:50	17%	4%	0.5%	59%
UA 719 United Flight history →	SJC 14:32	DEN 18:10	18%	7%	0.5%	63%
WN 4247 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:40	DEN 23:10	26%	8%	0.5%	76%
WN 3667 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:10	DEN 16:35	31%	5%	0.5%	23%
WN 4246 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:05	DEN 20:30	34%	8%	0.5%	47%
WN 3668 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:35	DEN 18:00	36%	7%	0.5%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON