Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2909 at 14:45, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2909 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:45	EUG 16:15	27%	9%	0.6%	44%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → EUG 11:48DL 4135 · flown by SkyWest	5h 48m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	98%	89%
Alaska Details →	SJC 08:00 → PDX 09:44AS 679	1h 15m Portland	PDX 10:59 → EUG 11:57AS 3063 · flown by SkyWest	3h 57m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	SJC 17:28 → SEA 19:39AS 1413	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	6h 31m	94%	85%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:05AA 1694	2h 16m Phoenix	PHX 10:21 → EUG 13:06AA 4114 · flown by Envoy	7h 05m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	SJC 09:46 → PDX 11:31AS 2256 · flown by Horizon	2h 59m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	5h 37m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 08:20 → SEA 10:31AS 1426	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 11:37 → EUG 13:01AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest	4h 41m	66%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON