Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 18:37, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJC 18:37 → DEN 22:15UA 1035	1h 44m Denver	DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 +1UA 1745	8h 03m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	7h 46m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866	8h 33m	98%	77%
United Details →	SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 14:25 → EWR 18:00UA 2329	8h 30m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 49m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	9h 59m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	SJC 18:37 → PDX 20:29AS 3030 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Portland	PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631	8h 22m	89%	75%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	9h 18m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SJC 13:10 → IAH 19:05UA 2078	50m Houston	IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444	8h 27m	69%	54%
American Details →	SJC 19:23 → PHX 21:18AA 2576	56m Phoenix	PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156	7h 37m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON