Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2122 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2122 SJC 07:15 → HNL 09:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1416 SJC 08:15 → HNL 10:49 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2122 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 07:15	HNL 09:40	15%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 3672 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:50	HNL 21:20	30%	13%	0.6%	26%
AS 1416 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 08:15	HNL 10:49	36%	9%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	1h 09m Kahului	OGG 10:30 → HNL 11:12AS 1085	7h 12m	93%	64%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:38 → KOA 10:00AS 922	51m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057	7h 02m	87%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON