tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Austin, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3673 Southwest Flight history → SJC 09:20 HOU 15:10 13% 3% 1.2% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:15 → LGB 07:35WN 4933 1h 15m Long Beach LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483 5h 50m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:35 → ONT 07:55WN 4879 1h 45m Ontario ONT 09:40 → HOU 14:50WN 4868 6h 15m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:25 → PHX 08:20WN 3186 2h 05m Phoenix PHX 10:25 → HOU 15:05WN 3067 6h 40m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 57m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 7h 47m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 07:40 → LAS 09:10WN 1277 2h 15m Las Vegas LAS 11:25 → HOU 16:35WN 4724 6h 55m 100% 72%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 13:10 → DEN 16:35WN 3667 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55WN 2026 8h 45m 100% 71%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:00 → AUS 11:30WN 2363 1h 15m Austin AUS 12:45 → HOU 13:45WN 4392 5h 45m 99% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON