tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 18:37, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJC 18:37 → DEN 22:15UA 1035 1h 44m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 7h 50m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 2h 59m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 9h 32m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 44m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586 1h 30m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 37m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 9h 01m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 3h 31m Seattle SEA 16:01 → IAD 23:59AS 406 10h 40m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 8h 55m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON