Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:01, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2078 United Flight history →	SJC 13:10	IAH 19:05	19%	6%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714	10h 40m	100%	83%
United Details →	SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:10UA 719	3h 00m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	8h 09m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644	9h 19m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	9h 17m	99%	79%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	7h 47m	98%	79%
United Details →	SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586	3h 57m Denver	DEN 16:20 → IAH 19:57UA 588	9h 12m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287	7h 00m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → IAH 17:39DL 1223	9h 04m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 14:16 → SEA 16:27AS 521	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 17:33 → IAH 23:59AS 1573	7h 43m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON