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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 7h 47m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 16:30 → LAX 17:56DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Los Angeles LAX 21:00 → JFK 05:16 +1DL 960 9h 46m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55DL 2965 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 15:10 → JFK 23:40DL 938 9h 07m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 7h 40m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378 10h 13m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 19:10 → SLC 22:06DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705 8h 08m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → JFK 20:02DL 972 10h 02m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:05AA 1694 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 09:15 → JFK 17:28AA 2689 8h 27m 95% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON