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Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38% (calm day: 26%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:15, 56% on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 922 Alaska Flight history → SJC 07:38 KOA 10:00 10% 4% 0.7% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35WN 2280 1h 55m Las Vegas LAS 09:30 → KOA 12:50WN 4452 9h 50m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55DL 2965 3h 49m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 10h 44m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:05AA 1694 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 05m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 07:15 → HNL 09:40WN 2122 3h 35m Honolulu HNL 13:15 → KOA 14:10WN 561 9h 55m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 3h 29m Seattle SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238 11h 46m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953 3h 39m Kahului OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030 9h 36m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 14:16 → SEA 16:27AS 521 2h 32m Seattle SEA 18:59 → KOA 22:10AS 200 10h 54m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:17 → SEA 08:34AS 1314 2h 53m Seattle SEA 11:27 → KOA 14:35AS 204 11h 18m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 08:15 → HNL 10:49AS 1416 1h 02m Honolulu HNL 11:51 → KOA 12:40AS 1088 7h 25m 67% 42%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 08:20 → SEA 10:31AS 1426 56m Seattle SEA 11:27 → KOA 14:35AS 204 9h 15m 49% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON