Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2280 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2280 SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2335 SJC 18:50 → LAS 20:20 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2280 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:00	LAS 07:35	2%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 1277 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 07:40	LAS 09:10	4%	2%	0.6%	100%
WN 2369 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:10	LAS 10:40	7%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 2311 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:20	LAS 11:50	13%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 714 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:40	LAS 15:10	25%	9%	0.6%	85%
WN 2339 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:30	LAS 17:00	30%	12%	0.6%	58%
WN 3675 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:20	LAS 21:50	32%	13%	0.6%	61%
F9 1590 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 14:12	LAS 15:50	33%	14%	1.2%	77%worse than usual
WN 5126 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:35	LAS 21:10	34%	13%	0.6%	77%worse than usual
WN 2266 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:00	LAS 18:30	34%	13%	0.6%	57%
WN 2335 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:50	LAS 20:20	35%	14%	0.6%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON