Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4850 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4850 SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3680 SJC 18:20 → LAX 19:40 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4850 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 07:00	LAX 08:25	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2965 Delta Flight history →	SJC 11:33	LAX 12:55	10%	5%	1.2%	92%
DL 1654 Delta Flight history →	SJC 07:00	LAX 08:26	10%	4%	1.2%	91%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:59	LAX 16:24	10%	5%	0.5%	92%
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 16:30	LAX 17:56	11%	5%	0.6%	93%
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:25	LAX 22:00	11%	7%	0.6%	92%
DL 4451 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:55	LAX 11:20	11%	5%	0.6%	93%
DL 1438 Delta Flight history →	SJC 18:12	LAX 19:34	13%	6%	1.1%	93%
WN 2384 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	LAX 12:55	14%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 4877 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:25	LAX 11:45	15%	4%	0.6%	91%
WN 940 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:30	LAX 15:50	25%	6%	0.6%	55%
WN 4541 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 16:20	LAX 17:40	29%	8%	0.6%	74%
F9 4082 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 20:23	LAX 21:48	30%	10%	3.8%	75%
WN 3681 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:20	LAX 21:45	34%	10%	0.6%	31%
WN 3680 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:20	LAX 19:40	37%	11%	0.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON