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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 29m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 30m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 10h 52m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586 3h 37m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 10h 09m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 1h 06m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 7h 52m 100% 70%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:54 → LGA 18:28AA 1535 9h 27m 98% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 10:05 → MDW 16:10WN 4357 3h 35m Chicago MDW 19:45 → LGA 23:00WN 4120 9h 55m 100% 62%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:47 → DFW 17:30AA 2572 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 8h 58m 87% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965 55m Dallas DAL 18:00 → LGA 22:25WN 4852 7h 45m 74% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON