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Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35WN 2280 1h 50m Las Vegas LAS 09:25 → LIH 12:45WN 2262 9h 45m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:05AA 1694 2h 44m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 11h 35m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55DL 2965 1h 50m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 08m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 07:15 → HNL 09:40WN 2122 3h 45m Honolulu HNL 13:25 → LIH 14:15WN 1923 10h 00m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 23m 94% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953 2h 55m Kahului OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049 9h 06m 98% 68%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 14:16 → SEA 16:27AS 521 1h 46m Seattle SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237 10h 09m 91% 62%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:17 → SEA 08:34AS 1314 2h 54m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 11h 23m 100% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 08:20 → SEA 10:31AS 1426 57m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 9h 20m 50% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON