Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Seattle, leaving 17:55, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	10h 45m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 59m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	SJC 19:10 → PHX 21:10WN 3696	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508	8h 10m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	SJC 18:12 → LAX 19:34DL 1438	2h 53m Los Angeles	LAX 22:27 → MCO 06:25 +1DL 547	9h 13m	100%	67%
United Details →	SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → MCO 17:57UA 609	8h 27m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	SJC 18:50 → LAS 20:20WN 2335	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590	8h 35m	100%	65%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	3h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → MCO 20:02DL 1885	10h 42m	100%	65%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55DL 2965	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718	9h 34m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SJC 19:00 → SAN 20:25WN 4513	1h 30m San Diego	SAN 21:55 → MCO 05:55 +1WN 4874	7h 55m	74%	48%
Southwest Details →	SJC 20:20 → LAS 21:50WN 3675	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590	7h 05m	68%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON