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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 39m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 15m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → SJC 19:23 → PHX 21:18AA 2576 1h 47m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 8h 05m 86% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 16:03 → MIA 18:20DL 1323 8h 45m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 1h 14m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → MIA 18:07DL 811 8h 07m 92% 64%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:47 → DFW 17:30AA 2572 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → MIA 23:56AA 2823 9h 09m 94% 62%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:45 → MIA 16:43AA 3117 7h 42m 93% 60%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:39 → PHX 14:35AA 3325 1h 49m Phoenix PHX 16:24 → MIA 23:54AA 496 8h 15m 86% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON