Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2156 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:20	MSP 11:59	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	SJC 13:10	MSP 18:44	10%	4%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 40m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654	2h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	7h 50m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941	8h 17m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55DL 2965	2h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198	7h 26m	100%	83%
United Details →	SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586	1h 19m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	6h 01m	96%	82%
United Details →	SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	7h 43m	100%	82%
United Details →	SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:10UA 719	2h 44m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	7h 27m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	5h 47m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SJC 14:35 → DEN 18:00WN 3668	1h 05m Denver	DEN 19:05 → MSP 22:10WN 2677	5h 35m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON