tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 34% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2200 Southwest Flight history → SJC 07:20 OGG 09:35 6% 2% 0.6% 98%
AS 953 Alaska Flight history → SJC 07:00 OGG 09:21 11% 3% 0.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35WN 2280 1h 45m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → OGG 12:35WN 1457 9h 35m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 07:15 → HNL 09:40WN 2122 2h 40m Honolulu HNL 12:20 → OGG 13:10WN 1930 8h 55m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55DL 2965 4h 00m Los Angeles LAX 16:55 → OGG 19:34DL 418 11h 01m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:25 → PHX 08:20WN 3186 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 09:20 → OGG 12:40WN 2138 9h 15m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:05AA 1694 2h 58m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 31m 98% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 14:31 → PDX 16:15AS 1633 1h 30m Portland PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353 9h 09m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 08m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:38 → KOA 10:00AS 922 2h 51m Kailua/Kona KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149 8h 50m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 08:15 → HNL 10:49AS 1416 55m Honolulu HNL 11:44 → OGG 12:28AS 1096 7h 13m 47% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON