tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2451 United Flight history → SJC 06:30 ORD 12:54 6% 3% 0.7% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SJC 18:37 → PDX 20:29AS 3030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Portland PDX 22:59 → ORD 05:00 +1AS 376 8h 23m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SJC 13:10 → IAH 19:05UA 2078 3h 03m Houston IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752 9h 35m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:10UA 719 2h 55m Denver DEN 21:05 → ORD 00:44 +1UA 2649 8h 12m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 45m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 9h 13m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:05AA 1694 2h 10m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252 8h 11m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 2h 58m Los Angeles LAX 11:24 → ORD 17:35DL 2368 8h 35m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586 2h 38m Denver DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023 8h 01m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:23 → DFW 20:04AA 436 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 7h 16m 71% 54%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:03 → SAN 11:43AS 3059 · flown by SkyWest 57m San Diego SAN 12:40 → ORD 18:57AS 1478 6h 54m 71% 43%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 08:20 → SEA 10:31AS 1426 58m Seattle SEA 11:29 → ORD 17:38AS 346 7h 18m 62% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON