Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3693 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3693 SJC 06:55 → PDX 08:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 384 SJC 21:40 → PDX 23:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3693 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:55	PDX 08:40	2%	1%	0.5%	100%
AS 679 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 08:00	PDX 09:44	6%	2%	0.6%	100%
AS 3030 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 18:37	PDX 20:29	12%	5%	0.6%	75%
AS 1633 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 14:31	PDX 16:15	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 2433 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:00	PDX 16:40	24%	5%	0.5%	68%
WN 384 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:40	PDX 23:25	26%	8%	0.5%	55%
AS 2256 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 09:46	PDX 11:31	4%	4%	1.9%	96%
AS 2188 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 12:03	PDX 13:48	33%	14%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON