Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3186 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3186 SJC 06:25 → PHX 08:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3696 SJC 19:10 → PHX 21:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3186 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:25	PHX 08:20	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
AA 1694 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	PHX 08:05	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 3232 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:40	PHX 13:35	16%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 3325 American Flight history →	SJC 12:39	PHX 14:35	22%	7%	0.8%	79%
AA 2576 American Flight history →	SJC 19:23	PHX 21:18	30%	10%	0.9%	69%
WN 3266 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 16:05	PHX 18:00	32%	10%	0.6%	48%
WN 3697 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:45	PHX 23:40	32%	13%	0.8%	46%
WN 3696 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:10	PHX 21:10	33%	13%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON