Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4133 at 09:00, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4133 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:00	RNO 10:05	4%	3%	0.5%	100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	SJC 07:40 → LAS 09:10WN 1277	55m Las Vegas	LAS 10:05 → RNO 11:30WN 1007	3h 50m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35WN 2280	3h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 10:40 → RNO 12:10WN 4685	6h 10m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	SJC 06:15 → LGB 07:35WN 4933	55m Long Beach	LGB 08:30 → RNO 09:50WN 3716	3h 35m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	SJC 06:30 → BUR 07:40WN 4843	1h 40m Burbank	BUR 09:20 → RNO 10:40WN 339	4h 10m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 09m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	SJC 09:46 → PDX 11:31AS 2256 · flown by Horizon	3h 30m Portland	PDX 15:01 → RNO 16:30AS 2206 · flown by Horizon	6h 44m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	SJC 14:31 → PDX 16:15AS 1633	1h 40m Portland	PDX 17:55 → RNO 19:31AS 1616	5h 00m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SJC 19:35 → LAS 21:10WN 5126	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → RNO 23:40WN 287	4h 05m	66%	46%
Alaska Details →	SJC 17:28 → SEA 19:39AS 1413	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 20:52 → RNO 22:40AS 736	5h 12m	66%	46%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:13 → SAN 08:43AS 1623	47m San Diego	SAN 09:30 → RNO 11:27AS 3110 · flown by SkyWest	4h 14m	53%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON